June 2, 2025
In a dramatic political upset that has sent shockwaves through the European Union, conservative historian Karol Nawrocki has narrowly won Poland’s presidential election, defeating liberal Warsaw Mayor Rafał Trzaskowski by less than two percentage points. The razor-thin margin—50.9% to 49.1%—reflects a deeply divided nation at a critical juncture in its relationship with Brussels and its position within Europe’s evolving political landscape.
The result marks a stunning reversal from early exit polls released Sunday evening that had initially shown Trzaskowski winning, prompting premature victory celebrations among his supporters. As votes trickled in overnight, however, the tide gradually turned in Nawrocki’s favor, culminating in Monday’s official announcement by Poland’s state electoral commission (PKW).
“We won, although the phrase ‘razor’s edge’ will forever enter the Polish language and politics,” Trzaskowski had told supporters Sunday night, his wife joking that she was “close to having a heart attack” due to the tight margins. By Monday morning, the liberal candidate was forced to concede defeat as the final tallies confirmed Nawrocki’s victory.
For Nawrocki, a 42-year-old historian and keen amateur boxer who was relatively unknown nationally before being selected as the unofficial candidate of the opposition Law and Justice (PiS) party, the win represents a remarkable political ascension. A self-styled champion of traditional Catholic values and Polish sovereignty, Nawrocki’s triumph is likely to reinvigorate Poland’s conservative movement after it lost parliamentary power to Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s pro-EU coalition just 18 months ago.
Implications for Poland and Europe
The election result carries profound implications for both domestic Polish politics and the broader European landscape:
- Domestic Gridlock: Nawrocki is expected to use his presidential veto power to block Prime Minister Tusk’s pro-EU agenda, potentially creating a political stalemate on key issues including judicial reform and abortion rights.
- EU Relations: As a supporter of Polish sovereignty within the EU who opposes further integration, Nawrocki’s victory represents a setback for Brussels and for Tusk’s vision of Poland at the heart of European decision-making.
- Ukraine Policy: While both candidates supported continued assistance for neighboring Ukraine, Nawrocki has stated he does not want to see Ukraine joining NATO and the EU during Russia’s ongoing aggression.
- Conservative Resurgence: The result is likely to re-energize Poland’s national conservative opposition, giving them renewed belief they can defeat Tusk’s coalition in the 2027 parliamentary elections.
- Coalition Tensions: The defeat has already triggered calls for renegotiation of the governing coalition agreement, with junior partner Polska 2050 describing the result as “a yellow card—maybe even a red one—for this government.”
The election’s outcome has particular significance for Germany, which had hoped for a Trzaskowski victory to secure a like-minded partner within the EU on issues such as immigration and Ukraine policy. German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier attempted to put a positive spin on the results, sending “warm congratulations” to Nawrocki and emphasizing that “Germany and Poland are not only neighbors but also friends.”
A Campaign of Contrasts
The presidential campaign highlighted stark differences between the two candidates’ visions for Poland’s future:
| Issue | Karol Nawrocki (Winner) | Rafał Trzaskowski |
|---|---|---|
| EU Integration | Opposes further integration; wants to protect Polish sovereignty | Supports deeper EU integration and Poland at the heart of European decision-making |
| Values | Champions traditional Catholic and family values | Advocates for more progressive social policies |
| Climate Policy | Opposes EU climate policies as harmful to Polish economy | Supports EU green transition efforts |
| Migration | Rejects EU migration policies | Supports EU-wide approach to migration |
| Ukraine | Supports aid but opposes NATO/EU membership during conflict | Supports aid and eventual NATO/EU membership |
| Judicial Reform | Likely to block government efforts to remove political influence | Supports depoliticization of judiciary |
| Abortion Law | Supports maintaining strict restrictions | Supports liberalization |
| Trump Connection | Flew to Washington for photo with Trump during campaign | Critical of Trump’s approach to international relations |
The campaign was not without controversy. Questions were raised about Nawrocki’s property holdings after he claimed in a presidential debate to own just one apartment “like most Poles.” It later emerged he owned a second apartment acquired from a pensioner at a discount in exchange for promises of care, leading to accusations that he had taken advantage of a vulnerable senior citizen. Nawrocki subsequently promised to donate the council flat to charity and denied failing to provide the promised care.
The Power of the Presidency in Poland
While Poland’s presidency is largely ceremonial, with limited influence on foreign policy and defense, the president wields significant power through the ability to veto legislation. This veto power has already proven consequential during the current administration:
The outgoing conservative president, Andrzej Duda, who could not run for re-election having served two consecutive terms, has repeatedly used his veto to block Prime Minister Tusk’s key campaign promises, including removing political influence from the judiciary and liberalizing the country’s strict abortion law.
With Nawrocki’s victory, this pattern of obstruction is likely to continue, potentially frustrating Tusk’s reform agenda for the remainder of his term. The president-elect’s alignment with the Law and Justice party, which lost power to Tusk’s coalition in 2023, sets the stage for continued political polarization and gridlock.
International Reactions
The international community has responded cautiously to Nawrocki’s victory, with European leaders acknowledging the result while expressing varying degrees of concern about its implications for EU cohesion.
Germany’s Steinmeier offered cooperation “on the foundation of democracy and the rule of law,” in order “to ensure a future for Europe in security, freedom and prosperity,” while reminding Nawrocki of his “heavy responsibility, with his country and Europe at a crossroads.”
The United States, where Nawrocki secured a photo opportunity with former President Donald Trump during the campaign, has yet to issue an official statement on the result.
For the European Union, already grappling with rising nationalist sentiment in several member states, Nawrocki’s victory represents another challenge to its vision of deeper integration and shared values. The result is likely to complicate EU decision-making on issues ranging from climate policy to migration and rule of law.
Looking Ahead
As Poland absorbs the implications of this narrow but consequential election result, several key questions loom:
- Can Prime Minister Tusk maintain his coalition’s unity in the face of this setback? The immediate call from junior coalition partner Polska 2050 to renegotiate the coalition agreement suggests potential instability ahead.
- How aggressively will Nawrocki use his veto power, and on which issues? His approach could range from selective obstruction to comprehensive blockage of the government’s agenda.
- Will the result embolden Poland’s conservative opposition to adopt more confrontational tactics against the Tusk government?
- How will Poland’s relationships with key partners, particularly Germany and the EU institutions, evolve under a Nawrocki presidency?
The answers to these questions will shape not only Poland’s domestic politics but also its role within Europe and the broader international community in the years ahead.
As one Polish political analyst put it: “This wasn’t just an election—it was a referendum on Poland’s direction. And the result shows we remain a nation divided on our path forward.”
FAQ: Poland’s 2025 Presidential Election
Who won Poland’s 2025 presidential election?
Karol Nawrocki, a 42-year-old conservative historian backed by the nationalist Law and Justice (PiS) party, won with 50.9% of the vote, defeating liberal Warsaw Mayor Rafał Trzaskowski who received 49.1%.
How close was the election?
Extremely close—the margin was just 1.8 percentage points, or approximately 400,000 votes out of more than 22 million cast. Initial exit polls had actually shown Trzaskowski winning, but the final count reversed this projection.
Who is Karol Nawrocki?
Nawrocki is a historian who previously served as the director of the Institute of National Remembrance. He was relatively unknown nationally before being selected as the unofficial candidate of the opposition Law and Justice party. He’s a keen amateur boxer and footballer who often posts images of himself working out, and was presented during the campaign as someone who would stand up for ordinary Poles and the country’s national interests.
What powers does the Polish president have?
While the Polish presidency is largely ceremonial, with limited influence on foreign policy and defense, the president has significant veto power over legislation. This allows the president to block laws passed by parliament unless they can be overridden by a three-fifths majority, which the current governing coalition lacks.
What does this mean for Poland’s relationship with the EU?
Nawrocki’s victory is likely to complicate Poland’s relationship with the EU. He opposes further European integration and the EU’s climate and migration policies, preferring to protect Polish sovereignty. This puts him at odds with Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s vision of Poland at the heart of European decision-making.
How will this affect Poland’s domestic politics?
Nawrocki is expected to use his presidential veto to block Prime Minister Tusk’s pro-EU program, potentially creating political gridlock on key issues including judicial reform and abortion rights. The result has already triggered calls for renegotiation of the governing coalition agreement.
What was controversial about Nawrocki’s campaign?
Questions were raised about Nawrocki’s property holdings after he claimed to own just one apartment “like most Poles.” It later emerged he owned a second apartment acquired from a pensioner at a discount in exchange for promises of care, leading to accusations of taking advantage of a vulnerable senior citizen.
What is Nawrocki’s position on Ukraine?
Nawrocki supports continued assistance for neighboring Ukraine but has stated he does not want to see Ukraine joining NATO and the EU during Russia’s ongoing aggression. This position differs somewhat from Trzaskowski’s more enthusiastic support for Ukraine’s Western integration.
How has the international community reacted?
Reactions have been cautious. Germany’s President Frank-Walter Steinmeier sent “warm congratulations” while emphasizing the importance of cooperation “on the foundation of democracy and the rule of law.” The EU institutions are concerned about the implications for European cohesion and decision-making.
When will Nawrocki take office?
Nawrocki will be sworn in as Poland’s president in August 2025, when current President Andrzej Duda’s second term officially ends.
